In order for the Paris Agreement to "Enter into Force" and become international law 55 countries that account for 55 percent of the world's emissions will need to ratify the agreement through their domestic processes. Recent developments in Brazil and Ukraine highlight that both countries are on the cusp of formally joining this year. It is now looking very likely that the Paris Agreement will reach the entry-into-force threshold this year based upon publicly announced intentions from countries.
Earlier this week, Brazil's House of Representatives unanimously approved a legislative decree to ratify the Paris Agreement. The bill now moves to the Senate. Brazilian observers are confident that the Senate will pass a similar bill, possibly in the coming days or weeks. It would then be sent to Acting President Temer for his approval in order to make it domestic law. Each of these steps is very likely to happen this year. Brazil accounts for 2.5 percent of emissions towards the threshold.
The Ukraine government moved even closer to formally joining the Paris Agreement as its Parliament voted to ratify the agreement. The Ukrainian Government will now need to take the final step and formally notify the U.N. that they have ratified the agreement. Ukraine accounts for one percent of emissions towards the threshold.
Eighteen countries have formally notified the U.N. of their ratification and 29 (including Brazil and Ukraine) have already announced their intent to join this year. The emissions from these 47 countries account for 54.08 percent of the world's emissions. With India, who signaled with President Obama their intent to join this year and have started their domestic process, we would be at over 58 percent of emissions. With Japan, who hasn't said anything publicly but could easily do it this year, we would be at about 62 percent of emissions (see figure and table). And reaching the 55 country threshold should be easily within reach as a number of small emitting countries are likely to join but haven't yet said anything publicly.
It now looks very likely that the Paris Agreement will enter-into-force this year. This continues the huge momentum for stronger climate action that has occurred since the agreement was finalized and signifies that countries are formally committed to delivering stronger climate action in the years to come.
NRDC has been tracking the countries that have publicly announced that they will ratify the Paris Agreement this year. The table below is based upon those public announcements. Other countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, have sent some public signals that they will ratify this year but since these aren't formal announcements we haven't included them at this stage.
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I am a climate scientist, and have spent much of my career with my head buried in climate model output and observational climate data, trying to tease out the signal of human-caused climate change.
What is disconcerting to me and so many of my colleagues is that these tools that we've spent years developing increasingly are unnecessary because we can see the impacts of climate change playing out in real time on our television screens in the 24 hour news cycle.
Regardless of how you measure the impacts of climate change -- whether it be food, water, health, national security, our economy -- climate change is already taking a great toll. And we see that tool in the damage done by more extreme floods, like the floods we've seen over the past year in Texas and in South Carolina. We see it in the devastating combination of sea level rise and more destructive hurricanes which has led to calamities like "Superstorm" Sandy and what is now the perennial flooding of Miami beach. We see it in the unprecedented drought, like that which continues to afflict California, a doubling in the area of wildfire, fire burning in the western U.S., and indeed, in the record heat we may see this weekend in phoenix.
The signal of climate change is no longer subtle. It is obvious.
Wealthy privately held corporations and foundations with close interests in, or ties to, the fossil fuel industry, such as Koch Industries and the Scaife Foundations, have become increasingly active funders of the climate change denial campaign in recent years. Unlike publicly traded companies such as ExxonMobil, these private outfits can hide their finances from public view, and they remain largely invulnerable to outside pressure. In recent years, as ExxonMobil has been pressured by politicians on both sides of the aisle to withdraw from funding the climate change denial movement, Koch and Scaife have stepped up, contributing millions of dollars to the effort.
One report showed that twenty or so organizations funded at least in part by Koch Industries had "repeatedly rebroadcast, referenced and appeared as media spokespeople" in stories about climategate.
In mid-January 2010, a group known as the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR), which receives funding from the Scaife Foundations, led a campaign to have my NSF grants revoked. The perverse premise was that I was somehow pocketing millions of dollars of "Obama" stimulus money simply because I was a coinvestigator on several recently funded NSF grants. These absurd distortions were--no surprise--promoted by Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, and others of similar persuasion.
Two Scaife-funded groups.. the Southeastern Legal Foundation and the Landmark Legal Foundation, had swung into action. The latter had already sued the University of Massachusetts and University of Arizona to obtain copies of my personal e-mails with my two hockey stick coauthors, while in May 2010 the former demanded extensive information from the NSF regarding grants that had been made to me as well as to several of my colleagues at Penn State, the University of Chicago, the University of Washington, the University of Arizona, and Columbia University.
It began to strike me as curious that so many of the demands that I be investigated could be traced back to organizations with ties to the Scaife Foundations. The Commonwealth Foundation, a Pennsylvania organization that is the recipient of considerable Scaife largess, for example, had been pressuring Penn State University to fi e me since climategate broke in late November 2009. It managed to get the sympathetic Republican chair of the Pennsylvania state senate education committee to threaten to hold Penn State's funding hostage until "appropriate action is taken by the university against associate [sic] professor Michael Mann." Indeed, it was the Commonwealth Foundation attacks that essentially forced Penn State to launch its initial inquiry into the various allegations against me in December 2009 (similar inquiries and investigations of CRU scientists were initiated in the United Kingdom). The Commonwealth Foundation kept the pressure on for months through a barrage of press conferences and press releases attacking me personally and criticizing Penn State for its supposed "whitewash" treatment of any number of supposed offenses. It also ran daily attack ads against me in our university newspaper The Collegian for an entire week in January and helped organize a protest rally against me on campus. It is likely that these attacks forced Penn State's hand yet again, leading it, following the completion of the initial inquiry in February 2010, to move to a formal investigation, despite having found no evidence of misconduct in the initial inquiry phase.
Michael Mann is Distinguished Professor of Meteorology at Pennsylvania State University and author of The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars and the recently updated and expanded Dire Predictions: Understanding Climate Change. His latest book The Madhouse Effect, with Washington Post editorial cartoonist Tom Toles, is due out in early September.
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Climate_Stillz posted a photo:
The events that occurred in the beautiful city of Nice, France yesterday have become all too regular on our planet. For today's post I'd like to share the words of a friend that I came across this morning: “Each morning I brace myself before I turn my phone on. I find that I need to ready myself before the news alerts start peppering my phone with the tragedies we've inflicted on each other and the world in the past eight hours /// I know many of you are also coping with this daily. I know many of you are consciously choosing to remain loving and courageous in the face of these horrors. It's not easy. I know because I feel the emotional weight of it too. /// Thank you for charging on and doing the best you can every day while carrying your grieving and embattled hearts. It takes something not to give up and not to shut down. Please know that you are not alone in this. We will figure this out. I believe in us.” /// May everyone have a safe and happy weekend, wherever you are in the world. /// Words by @ialhusseini, source imagery from @digitalglobe (at Nice, France)
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Black Lives Matter in Baton Rouge, a dog surfs in Croatia, a hot air balloon glides over Australia, Serena Williams triumphs, a deadly truck attack in Nice, a new view of Jupiter, and much more.
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John Fowler - Scientist of the Day
Sir John Fowler, an English civil engineer, was born July 15, 1817.
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