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These Charts Show What the Paris Climate Agreement Is Up Against  
BERLIN -- There has been a heated debate over the last few years about if and how we can prevent the world from warming more than 2 degrees Celsius. At the Paris climate conference last year, countries set out an even more ambitious goal -- keeping the world under 1.5C of warming. We know relatively little about the benefits, risks and challenges associated with reaching the 1.5C target, but our knowledge in the area is expanding rapidly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is now tasked with mapping out the state of the scientific knowledge on the 1.5C goal in a report due in the autumn of 2018 that is expected to inform future international negotiations. And first, at a meeting this week in Geneva, 60 experts and government officials are coming together to scope that study.

The 1.5C goal is elusive

There are many open scientific questions around the costs and benefits of keeping global warming below 2C versus 1.5C that will need to be addressed by this special report. Whether we can feasibly reach 1.5C -- and how -- will be the most important.

Many experts see a growing dissonance between the increasing ambitions of climate policy and the lack of success in achieving sustained emission reductions today. So far, there is no track record for reducing emissions globally. Instead, greenhouse gas emissions have been rising at a faster pace during the last decade than previously -- despite growing awareness and political action across the globe.



The remaining net amount of CO2 that can still be released to the atmosphere in order to keep temperatures rise below 1.5C is close to zero. Even in the most optimistic case, it will not take longer than five years to exhaust the remaining carbon budget at current rates of CO2 emissions. It will be, on the other hand, about 10-25 years before the world crosses the budget line for 2C.

So is reaching 1.5C goal still thinkable? The initial evidence in the last IPCC report points towards the (theoretical) existence of emission reduction pathways consistent with the 1.5C goal, but the technological, economic and institutional requirements are enormous. Take all of the most difficult features of individual pathways to 2C -- like fast and ambitious climate action in all countries of the world, the full availability of all required emissions reduction and carbon removal technologies, as well as aggressive energy demand reductions across the globe -- the feasibility of which were so heatedly debated prior to Paris. This gives you an idea of the challenge associated with the more ambitious 1.5C goal.







Keeping the temperature increase below 1.5C appears rather elusive -- the institutional challenge in mobilizing adequate action at the timescales required appears too big. Still, positive surprises, unexpected technological breakthroughs or rapidly changing attitudes and ambitions may well occur and keep the 1.5C goal within reach.

What kind of technologies we would need to meet a 1.5C goal? One prominent feature of 1.5C pathways is their fundamental dependence on the ability to remove large amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere through carbon dioxide removal technologies. Such CO2 removals buy us time, while we are reducing emissions towards a fully decarbonized world economy -- as with a bank loan, we overshoot our carbon budget in the short term and pay it back later, with interest. All 1.5C pathways to date are characterized by such an overshoot.



But the amount of CO2 we need to remove from the atmosphere is staggering: roughly speaking, every unit of CO2 we release around the globe from today onwards will need to be compensated for during the 21st century. In total, we would need to store 10-25 years worth of emissions at current rates under the Earth's crust.

Is that possible? We need a fine-grained exploration of all the ways to extract carbon from the atmosphere. These include biochar, afforestation, direct air capture, enhanced weathering or bioenergy combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).



Currently, all of these technologies seem to have stark limits: some are currently hugely expensive while others require large amounts of land and may involve potentially large risks to food security or biodiversity. It is therefore prudent to believe that a portfolio of carbon dioxide removal options will need to be established to stand a chance of meeting the 1.5C goal.

But there is widespread skepticism about developing and deploying some components of removal technologies. For example, in the case of BECCS, there is opposition both against wider deployment of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage. In fact, CCS has a track record of lagging behind the roadmaps laid out by the International Energy Agency. Understanding the possibilities of meeting the 1.5C goal fundamentally hinges on our ability to overcome roadblocks and learn quickly about the various technologies and their associated risks at growing scales.

So what will work?

Limiting our dependence on carbon removal technologies -- for whatever reason -- requires immediate and sustained emission reductions across the globe, another difficult feature of 1.5C pathways. But the emission reductions that countries have committed to as part of the Paris agreement are not sufficient to even modestly enter a new era of sustained emissions reductions. Unless this short-term ambition is ratcheted up substantially, global emissions growth will only be slowed down in the best case. By 2030, carbon releases will have exceeded the remaining budget for the 1.5C goal four times and used up most of the remaining budget associated with the 2C goal. If history plays out in this way, the challenge of meeting the 2C limit will be roughly the same as the one we face today for meeting the 1.5C goal -- and, by then, more vital.

The IPCC special report needs to address the questions of how to achieve sustained and substantial greenhouse gas emissions reductions efficiently -- what works under what conditions and what doesn't. How can we end the renaissance of coal and initiate a global coal exit? What policies have been historically successful in reducing GHG emissions? What are the options to resolve distributional conflicts underlying the climate problem? By providing such a knowledge base for solutions to the climate problem, the IPCC special report could turn out to be of real value for policymakers as well as future international negotiations. The biggest threat is that it will exclusively focus on the long-term. This would risk diverting too many valuable resources away from what is needed now: jumpstarting a legacy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions towards a completely carbon-neutral world.

Also on WorldPost:

-- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

 
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Does eating more salt prevent migraines and severe headaches?  
For the first time, there's evidence suggesting dietary sodium can affect migraines, but salt comes with a strong health warning  
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These Charts Show What the Paris Climate Agreement Is Up Against  
BERLIN -- There has been a heated debate over the last few years about if and how we can prevent the world from warming more than 2 degrees Celsius. At the Paris climate conference last year, countries set out an even more ambitious goal -- keeping the world under 1.5C of warming. We know relatively little about the benefits, risks and challenges associated with reaching the 1.5C target, but our knowledge in the area is expanding rapidly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is now tasked with mapping out the state of the scientific knowledge on the 1.5C goal in a report due in the autumn of 2018 that is expected to inform future international negotiations. And first, at a meeting this week in Geneva, 60 experts and government officials are coming together to scope that study.

The 1.5C goal is elusive

There are many open scientific questions around the costs and benefits of keeping global warming below 2C versus 1.5C that will need to be addressed by this special report. Whether we can feasibly reach 1.5C -- and how -- will be the most important.

Many experts see a growing dissonance between the increasing ambitions of climate policy and the lack of success in achieving sustained emission reductions today. So far, there is no track record for reducing emissions globally. Instead, greenhouse gas emissions have been rising at a faster pace during the last decade than previously -- despite growing awareness and political action across the globe.



The remaining net amount of CO2 that can still be released to the atmosphere in order to keep temperatures rise below 1.5C is close to zero. Even in the most optimistic case, it will not take longer than five years to exhaust the remaining carbon budget at current rates of CO2 emissions. It will be, on the other hand, about 10-25 years before the world crosses the budget line for 2C.

So is reaching 1.5C goal still thinkable? The initial evidence in the last IPCC report points towards the (theoretical) existence of emission reduction pathways consistent with the 1.5C goal, but the technological, economic and institutional requirements are enormous. Take all of the most difficult features of individual pathways to 2C -- like fast and ambitious climate action in all countries of the world, the full availability of all required emissions reduction and carbon removal technologies, as well as aggressive energy demand reductions across the globe -- the feasibility of which were so heatedly debated prior to Paris. This gives you an idea of the challenge associated with the more ambitious 1.5C goal.







Keeping the temperature increase below 1.5C appears rather elusive -- the institutional challenge in mobilizing adequate action at the timescales required appears too big. Still, positive surprises, unexpected technological breakthroughs or rapidly changing attitudes and ambitions may well occur and keep the 1.5C goal within reach.

What kind of technologies we would need to meet a 1.5C goal? One prominent feature of 1.5C pathways is their fundamental dependence on the ability to remove large amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere through carbon dioxide removal technologies. Such CO2 removals buy us time, while we are reducing emissions towards a fully decarbonized world economy -- as with a bank loan, we overshoot our carbon budget in the short term and pay it back later, with interest. All 1.5C pathways to date are characterized by such an overshoot.



But the amount of CO2 we need to remove from the atmosphere is staggering: roughly speaking, every unit of CO2 we release around the globe from today onwards will need to be compensated for during the 21st century. In total, we would need to store 10-25 years worth of emissions at current rates under the Earth's crust.

Is that possible? We need a fine-grained exploration of all the ways to extract carbon from the atmosphere. These include biochar, afforestation, direct air capture, enhanced weathering or bioenergy combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).



Currently, all of these technologies seem to have stark limits: some are currently hugely expensive while others require large amounts of land and may involve potentially large risks to food security or biodiversity. It is therefore prudent to believe that a portfolio of carbon dioxide removal options will need to be established to stand a chance of meeting the 1.5C goal.

But there is widespread skepticism about developing and deploying some components of removal technologies. For example, in the case of BECCS, there is opposition both against wider deployment of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage. In fact, CCS has a track record of lagging behind the roadmaps laid out by the International Energy Agency. Understanding the possibilities of meeting the 1.5C goal fundamentally hinges on our ability to overcome roadblocks and learn quickly about the various technologies and their associated risks at growing scales.

So what will work?

Limiting our dependence on carbon removal technologies -- for whatever reason -- requires immediate and sustained emission reductions across the globe, another difficult feature of 1.5C pathways. But the emission reductions that countries have committed to as part of the Paris agreement are not sufficient to even modestly enter a new era of sustained emissions reductions. Unless this short-term ambition is ratcheted up substantially, global emissions growth will only be slowed down in the best case. By 2030, carbon releases will have exceeded the remaining budget for the 1.5C goal four times and used up most of the remaining budget associated with the 2C goal. If history plays out in this way, the challenge of meeting the 2C limit will be roughly the same as the one we face today for meeting the 1.5C goal -- and, by then, more vital.

The IPCC special report needs to address the questions of how to achieve sustained and substantial greenhouse gas emissions reductions efficiently -- what works under what conditions and what doesn't. How can we end the renaissance of coal and initiate a global coal exit? What policies have been historically successful in reducing GHG emissions? What are the options to resolve distributional conflicts underlying the climate problem? By providing such a knowledge base for solutions to the climate problem, the IPCC special report could turn out to be of real value for policymakers as well as future international negotiations. The biggest threat is that it will exclusively focus on the long-term. This would risk diverting too many valuable resources away from what is needed now: jumpstarting a legacy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions towards a completely carbon-neutral world.

Also on WorldPost:

-- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

 
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How Big A Risk Is Acetaminophen During Pregnancy?  

A study found that behavioral problems were more common among the children of women who took acetaminophen during pregnancy. But interpreting the results isn't as straightforward as you might expect.

 
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Entangled Hawking radiation spotted in analogue black hole  
Quantized sound emerges from BoseEinstein condensate  
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r0B0t: Fallout 4's 'Nuka World' add-on visits a nuked Disneyland clone  

The tune might not be as catchy as "It's a Small World After All," but this new trailer for Fallout 4's Nuka World add-on uses an infectiously happy tune as the backbeat for its peek into a post-apocalyptic theme park.

There are roller coasters and tilt-a-whirls. Killer robots and laser-spewing aliens. You know, all the ingredients necessary to create the happiest place on Earth in a world where nuclear fallout erased all happiness long ago.

More about Entertainment, Gaming, Bethesda Softworks, and Fallout 4  
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r0B0t: MIT's Temporary Tattoos Are The Wearable Gadgets Of The Future  

Will the remote control still exist in the future? If MIT and Microsoft have their way then the answer would most definitely be no.

The two have partnered together to create DuoSkin, a unique temporary tattoo that when attached directly to the skin, allows the user to control a range of connected devices.

DuoSkin is made using gold metal leaf, which means that it's cheap, skin-friendly and can support a range of different input options.

The finished product can be styled in a number of ways (so it doesn't scream that you're wearing an advanced piece of wireless technology), and the applications can range from a simple on/off switch to even increasing/lowering the volume on a device.

If you're fed up of losing your Oyster, then DuoSkin could potentially help in the future too. In addition to be a control interface, the tattoos can be equipped with wireless communication devices like NFC receivers allowing you to turn your arm into your very own Oyster card.

Finally the team developed a simplistic display that could also be worn using the same process.

Using ink-like thermochromic pigments, the displays have two different states and can be switched when the liquid is heated beyond body temperature.

As you can probably tell, these are very much in the early stages which means that any channel switching from the comfort of your own arm is still a few years away.

However by creating a faster, easier construction method the project has effectively opened up the space to other research teams to take the technology forward.

Robots In 2016:

 
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r0B0t: This Lawyer Bot Will Be Happy to Solve Your Housing Problems  

Remember the DoNotPay bot? The world's first “robot lawyer” (that we know of, I have questions about some of the attorneys I've met) made a name for itself disputing hundreds and thousands of parking tickets in London and New York City. Creator Joshua Browder, a Stanford student born in the United Kingdom, told Venture Beat that his bot had successfully challenged 160,000 of 250,000 British parking tickets as of June 2016. (DoNotPay opened its “practice” across the pond last fall and came to the States in March.) “I think the people getting parking tickets are the most vulnerable in society,” Browder said at the time. “These people aren't looking to break the law. I think they're being exploited as a revenue source by the local government.”

DoNotPay is essentially a chat bot that asks the user questions to determine what the best course of legal action might be. For instance, it might inquire, of the newly ticketed, whether a sign was visible above the parking space. Or maybe the only nearby lot was too small—it's unreasonable to ticket drivers for not parking in a too-small lot. Once the user has figured out the basis for his appeal, DoNotPay generates an official letter automatically.

That was several months ago. Now, the bot is turning its pro bono efforts to homelessness. The new service launched Aug. 10 in the United Kingdom; Browder wants to take it to San Francisco and New York next. It's a story of unanticipated demand: When DoNotPay began receiving messages about eviction and repossession, Browder realized his digital Saul Goodman could help people apply for emergency housing. According to the Guardian, he consulted a team of volunteer (human) lawyers and pored over FOIA-obtained documents to “figure out trends in why public housing applications are approved or denied.”

That data made its way into the algorithm that shapes DoNotPay's responses to user input. Though the project was only released on Wednesday, Browder told the Guardian he's already seeing people use it to help tackle their housing problems. For instance, to a person evicted from her home, the bot might ask: “Do you have a legal right to live here?” It might say, “Are you legally homeless?” and elaborate with a definition: “Usually, this means that you have no legal right to live in accommodation anywhere in the world.”

The more complicated and delicate cases will likely continue to require a human touch, but DoNotPay may reduce the shame and bother that can come with seeking certain forms of legal aid. With his automated attorney, Browder has bottled the efficiency of statutory expertise, made it convenient to access, and left out the sticky interpersonal stuff. Who—law school grad or otherwise—would object to that?

 
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