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Cross-Posted from DeSmogBlog
Image Credit: Twitter
A DeSmog investigation has revealed the possibility that a front group supporting the controversial Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) — the Midwest Alliance for Infrastructure Now (MAIN) — may have created fake Twitter profiles, known by some as "sock puppets," to convey a pro-pipeline message over social media. And MAIN may be employing the PR services of the firm DCI Group, which has connections to the Republican Party, in order to do so.
DeSmog tracked down at least 16 different questionable Twitter accounts which used the #NoDAPL hashtag employed by protesters, in order to claim that opposition to the pipeline kills jobs, that those protesting the pipeline at the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe's encampment use violence, and that the pipeline does not pose a risk to water sources or cross over tribal land.
On September 13, people began to suspect these accounts were fake, calling them out on Twitter, and by September 14, most of the accounts no longer existed.
The Dakota Access Pipeline is set to carry oil obtained via hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") from the Bakken Shale basin in North Dakota across the Dakotas, Iowa, and Illinois. Its owner, Energy Transfer Partners (ETP), says it plans to talk to the Obama administration and "reiterate [its] commitment to bring the Dakota Access Pipeline into operation." It will do so despite the administration requesting that the company halt construction "voluntarily — particularly around the contested sacred tribal sites located 20 miles east and west of Lake Oahe and the Missouri River — until further notice."
In his memorandum announcing his company's plans to do so, ETP CEO Kelcy Warren espoused many of the same arguments that were deployed by the Twitter sock puppets, which calls into question whether his company helped spearhead the social media campaign behind the scenes in order to create the appearance of grassroots support, a technique known as "astroturfing."
In that memo, Warren said his company plans to engage more aggressively in the PR sphere.
"It has not been my preference to engage in a media/PR battle," wrote Warren. "However, misinformation has dominated the news, so we will work to communicate with the government and media more clearly in the days to come."
Vicki Granado, a spokesperson for the company, did not respond to a request for comment.
In the meantime, as all stakeholders in the debate await a definitive next move from the Obama administration, protests both on-site and nationwide have continued, with a militarized police presence at the Sacred Stone Camp intensifying. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) spoke at a September 13 Washington, DC protest against the pipeline, while U.S. Representatives Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) and Raul Ruiz (D-CA) that same day called for a congressional oversight investigation of the hotly contested permitting issues which have arisen in the ongoing saga over the pipeline's future.
With that backdrop, in came the "sock puppets" for their own September 13 day of action on Twitter — and with MAIN likely pulling the strings.
The sock puppet profiles had names such as Ashley Lovinggood, Garnett Vreeken, Yong Fetner, and Ying Baars, and all of the profile pictures featured women. Besides tweets promoting the Dakota Access Pipeline, what links all of the bogus profiles together is that they all "follow" (similar to "liking" a page on Facebook) the company Hootsuite.
Image Credit: Twitter
Hootsuite serves as a social media platform management tool which allows an administrator for many different social media accounts, such as Facebook and Twitter, to toggle quickly between accounts and send out posts in the form of tweets and other status updates. One of those accounts, that of Angla Dullea, formerly followed MAIN — and like all of the other pages — also followed Hootsuite; that is, until the account became suspended.
Dullea's profile photo bore an identical resemblance to the Twitter profile for Palma Mackerl, another bare-bones Twitter account.
Image Credit: Twitter
Dullea also retweeted a tweet from a group called Standing Rock Fact Checker, which on its website describes itself as a project of MAIN. The website also states it is "dedicated to promoting the truth" and battling "misinformation about the approved — and nearly complete — Dakota Access project." Five other suspicious Twitter profiles also shared Fact Checker tweets.
MAIN members include the South Dakota Petroleum and Propane Marketers Association, North Dakota Petroleum Council, Petroleum Marketers, Convenience Stores of Iowa, and others.
Reverse photo searches on Google revealed that the pictures used for other sock puppet profiles also appeared on a dermatologist website, a mail order bride website, and a hairstyle website featuring a photo of Eva Longoria, as well as images of Chinese model Crystal Wang Xi Ran, singer Keri Hilson, and the late singer Amy Winehouse.
Eva Longoria doppelgänger; Photo Credit: Twitter | Oliver Keyes
The use of political bots and sock puppets is nothing new and in fact, has become normalized by political factions worldwide, explained Norah Abokhodair of the Political Bots research program based at the University of Washington and Oxford University.
"There are many ways in which social bots can disrupt or influence online discourse, such as, spamming, phishing, distributed denial of service attacks (DDoS), or other nefarious activities," Abokhodair explained, pointing to examples such as the Syrian Civil War bots and bots used in Turkey. "They can also be deployed for sophisticated activities like astroturfing, misdirection (botnet that tries to get the audience to attend to other content by spamming the hashtag) and smoke screening (serves to hide or provide cover for or obscure some type of activity)."
MAIN was the only industry group to issue a press release in response to the Obama administration's September 9 announcement halting construction on a portion of the Dakota Access Pipeline. Its press release contained a statement attributed to spokesperson Craig Stevens. Stevens also recently did an interview with KVLY-TV, the NBC and CBS affiliate for Fargo, North Dakota. When on TV, however, he was billed as the "spokesperson for a pipeline sort of group, if you will" by segment host Chris Berg.
Despite the lack of disclosure by KVLY and Berg, it turns out that Craig Stevens actually works as Media Affairs and Crisis Management Lead for DCI Group. His DCI Group contact information is listed for MAIN's profile page on the website PR Newswire.
Image Credit: PR Newswire
DCI is a PR firm tied to the GOP and with roots in creating front groups on behalf of Big Tobacco, spearheading the modern Tea Party movement, and representing oppressive dictatorial regimes such as that of Burma and oil- and gas-soaked Azerbaijan. Stevens formerly worked for the George W. Bush presidential campaign, served as spokesperson for U.S. Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman for the George W. Bush Administration, and also worked on Mitt Romney's 2012 Republican Party presidential campaign.
Jim Murphy, the political director for Donald Trump's Republican Party presidential campaign, formerly served as President and Managing Partner for DCI Group. Beyond the DCI Group connection, Continental Resources — whose founder and CEO Harold Hamm is one of Donald Trump's top energy advisers and a potential candidate for U.S. Secretary of Energy under a Trump presidency — said in a recent investor statement that a significant chunk of the company's Bakken oil will flow through Dakota Access.
Before DCI Group began working on Standing Rock-related projects for MAIN, it appears the PR firm LS2Group maintained the PR account for Dakota Access. A MAIN press release from November 2015 lists LS2's Kayla Day as the contact person and her LS2 work number is also listed, while metadata for the press release's PDF shows the document was last saved by former LS2 staffer Alex Shaner.
As DeSmog has previously revealed, LS2 also did PR work in support of TransCanada's Keystone XL pipeline. The group Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement published emails from 2014 (obtained via a public records request) showing LS2 also doing advocacy work in support of Dakota Access.
LS2's Day told DeSmog that LS2 still does some work on behalf of MAIN, but declined to comment further on how the work is divvied up between LS2 and DCI Group. Stevens was first listed as a spokesperson for MAIN in a September 6 press release, two days after the now-infamous dog biting incident took place at the protesting Standing Rock Siuox Tribe's Sacred Stone Camp. The Standing Rock Fact Checker website was registered the day before, and it also sent out its first tweet that same day.
Image Credit: WhoIs.net
Stevens declined to comment on who funds MAIN, referring to the membership list and confirming he was brought on in the past couple weeks to do PR work on behalf of the coalition, "as the whole public discussion has increased and been elevated" surrounding the pipeline. He also confirmed he runs the Fact Checker portal.
Asked about whether his firm or MAIN had anything to do with the sock-puppet tweets, Stevens denied he or MAIN had any involvement.
"It's frustrating to me because we're working to be respectful in tone and fact-based and any tactics like these are a distraction for what we're trying to do and that's to bring facts and contexts to this discussion," Stevens said. "I don't know about the tactics themselves and I don't know who or what is behind it, but as someone who's trying to get facts out and trying to be respectful in tone, it was incredibly frustrating that this was going on. As far as I know, and think I know, the MAIN Coalition had nothing to do with them."
However, noted environmental advocate and co-founder of climate group 350.org, Bill McKibben, doubts the authenticity of such claims from PR firms with a record like DCI, saying:
"There's a word for this kind of thing, and that word is: lying. The invention of fake people to make fake arguments perfectly exemplifies the tactics Big Oil has been reduced to. They can't win an argument on the merits, so they've given up trying. Instead, they literally make things up. The contrast with the steadfast straightforwardness of the tribes, and of the climate scientists, couldn't be more stark."
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California Gnatcatcher on Buckwheat at UCI Eco Preserve this morning.
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Law enforcement agencies, NGOs, and business leaders gathered from across the world in Washington this week to share information and expertise and organize a concerted strategy to combat the global scourge of wildlife trafficking.
The unprecedented collaboration was heralded at the National Geographic Society's headquarters on Tuesday, at an event held against the backdrop of recent news of a catastrophic plunge in the last wild populations of African elephants and other species. The meeting also set the stage for CITES CoP17, a world wildlife conference in Johannesburg at the end of this month that will bring more than a hundred governments together to review the planet's biggest wildlife challenges and opportunities.
Stories From the Front Line: Exploring Global Law Enforcement in the New Age of Wildlife Trafficking — the title of the event hosted by the National Geographic Society and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) was attended also by officials and conservation experts from 11 African nations on the frontline of poaching of elephants, rhinos, and other iconic species.
The National Geographic/FWS event coincided with the publication of the October 2016 issue of National Geographic magazine, which features a report on the rhino horn trade and rhino farming in South Africa, written by Bryan Christy, the Society's wildlife crimes investigator.
Human-Wildlife Conflict Likely to Grow
The human population is expected to grow to nine billion people by 2050, one billion more in Africa alone in the next 35 years, said National Geographic Society President and CEO Gary E. Knell, at the opening of the event. “The chances of human-wildlife conflict are going to grow, whether we like it or not. We've got to come up with solutions, whether they're in Yellowstone National Park ecosystems, or whether it's in Gorongosa [National Park in Mozambique], or in Kenya or Cameroon. We have to find ways to find a balance and figure out ways to protect the natural habitats of wildlife, and at the same time protect the human needs for survival, food, housing, education, energy, and for all the things which we deserve in human rights.”
Bryan Christy's work on wildlife crime has been cited as one of ten ways National Geographic is changing the world, Knell said. Christy, head of the Society's Special Investigations Unit (SIU) team and 2014 NG Explorer of the Year, is an award-winning journalist and a true champion for wildlife and wild places, he added. “With dedication, courage and conviction [Christy] has already produced astounding results, exposing the criminals of wildlife trafficking and sharing these stories in print, television, digital media, Facebook. That's how we can make his work amplified. That work has put elephants and the illegal trade in elephants on the priority list of many countries, including our own, and has led to numerous Internet petitions and campaigns to stop the illegal ivory trade.”
Enforcement Is Key — But not Enough
David J. Hayes, Chair of the U.S. Wildlife Trafficking Alliance and Vice Chair of the President's Advisory Council on Wildlife Trafficking, said enforcement was key, both domestically in the U.S. and in Africa. “It is so fantastic that the FWS is training you all together to have an effective force,” he told the dozens of wildlife protection and law enforcement officers at the event. “But enforcement is not enough; we have to reduce the demand. As long as there are tremendous dollars chasing illegal products, it's going to be impossible for you guys to completely win,” he said.
Hayes said there was a need to develop international cooperation and public-private partnerships. “The government can't reduce demand by itself. We need all of civil society to come together. We need all of the big nonprofits in this space to not compete against each other, but to work together. And we need to recruit the corporate sector. We need new voices in this debate. We need companies that are being abused by traffickers, to step up, make sure that their supply chains are not being polluted by trafficked goods, and use their communications channels to deliver a broad message to consumers [to] ‘Watch out, don't buy this stuff. You may be the unwitting purchaser of it.'”
Hayes said the Advisory Council on Wildlife Trafficking went first to National Geographic to form a broad organization, “and with National Geographic, the World Wildlife Fund, the Wildlife Conservation Society, and the African Wildlife Foundation…we brought them under the U.S. Wildlife Trafficking Alliance banner. Then we went to the corporate world and said, we need your help…we're a nongovernmental temporary coalition bringing together the nonprofit community with the corporate community. We looked at leading companies in important sectors that traffickers were using. The e-commerce sector for example.”
Secret Sauce
The broad coalition of companies and NGOs under one umbrella speaks with one voice to help American consumers make better decisions, Hayes said.
But there's a secret sauce in this, he added. “You might say, why are you spending so much time in the U.S. consumer world when we know that the largest demand is coming from Southeast Asia. If we get global big name companies like Google, E-bay, Ralph Lauren, and others taking up this cause, communicating with their customers about the importance of this issue, that's going to affect international commerce, too. We're already seeing it happening. If we can get it done in the U.S., we think it will take fire globally as well.”
“All of society needs to help you do your job,” Hayes told the law enforcement gathering. “And with National Geographic's voice, with the impetus of companies and NGOs working together, we can address this issue and we must.”
Engagement Key to Success
“National Geographic's work gives us inspiration and helps us see what's possible in a world of challenge that often seems impossible,” Daniel M. Ashe, Director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, told the meeting. “If we are going to solve this crisis, this epidemic of wildlife trafficking, engaging people is the key ingredient in success.”
Photo Ark: A Reminder of What's at Stake
“Things like [the National Geographic project] Photo Ark with its 6,000 images, all of them a reminder of what's at stake,” was an example of engagement, Ashe said. “Iconic creatures like African elephant and black rhino and Sumatran tiger, but also the thousands of less charismatic creatures that form the foundation and the sinews that connect this global ecosystem on which we depend. The decline of all of these species, the great and small, the loved and obscure, is an ominous sign for the health of the planet and the billions of people that it sustains — and there will more people in the future, which reminds us that we need to do more and better.”
As we think about the future of prosecuting this effort, we can't just catch the poachers and the middlemen, Hayes added. “We have to go after the people who are making the money, so that we take wildlife trafficking from a high-profit, low-risk endeavor toward a lower profit, higher risk endeavor.”
Operation Crash
The success of Operation Crash [an ongoing nationwide criminal investigation led by the FWS Office of Law Enforcement, focusing on the illegal trade in rhinoceros horn and elephant ivory in response to international poaching and smuggling syndicates] was a key reason why the FWS was working to position senior agents around the globe to facilitate these efforts, Ashe said. The agency had recently selected a special agent to serve in Libreville, Gabon, joining five other attaches stationed in embassies in China, Thailand, Tanzania, Botswana, and Peru. “Hopefully before the end of the year, we will have attaches placed in three more key embassies around the world, because we've seen the tremendous value that these agents provide in improving our collaboration and information-sharing. They are dramatically expanding the reach and effectiveness of our law enforcement efforts and communication among law enforcement agencies across the globe,” Ashe said.
Long Time Coming
Introducing a panel discussion, Bryan Christy noted that the gathering of an international group of law enforcement officials had been a long time coming.
“Wildlife crime is organized crime…something that funds terrorist organizations operating in central Africa. It is violent…militarized…mechanized. And one of the advantages that it has is that law enforcement is not violent most of the time, not as well-funded, and, from the international perspective, not historically organized.
“You as law enforcement officers have restrictions that criminals don't; you have diplomatic restrictions on the ability cross borders, you have funding limitations, and you are outfitted with outdated technology occasionally. Criminals are not. Organized criminals are not, especially. So what's exciting to me about tonight is that this represents organized crime fighters.”
Christy noted that he had created the National Geographic Special Investigations Unit with specific goals: “To allow me to work on long investigations, give voice to the work that you do, have a platform for law-enforcement, and to profile endangered species and species we don't hear enough about — and then to empower communities on the ground, talk to journalists in developing countries where wildlife exists, and to law enforcement in those places.”
Following the Story No One Else Can Tell
“I tell law enforcement, if you share your story with me I will follow it,” Christy said. “I know you can't follow it…because of funding and so on. We have had great success doing that. And the success comes from sharing that story, sharing the work that you're doing, the work being done in other countries, pulling that together. And the impact can be pretty impressive.”
Panel Discussion
Five panelists joining Christy on the podium were Curtis Brown (Director of the Florida Fish & Wildlife Commission), Julius Kamwendwit Cheptei (Assistant Director, Kenya Wildlife Service Parks and Preserves), Mike Cenci (Deputy Chief, Washington State Department of Fish and Wildlife Law Enforcement Program), Christopher Fominyam Njoh Tangi (Director, Kimbi-Fungom National Park, Cameroon), and Timothy J. Santel (Resident Agent in Charge, Special Investigations Unit, U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service-Office of Law Enforcement).
Highlights of the Discussion
Curtis Brown: “It takes a lot of work, money and patience to allow for conservation work to happen, especially undercover work. It takes a long time for these cases to actually develop. And it costs a lot of money. So we appreciate everyone's support in that endeavor.
At a national association of conservation law enforcement chiefs meeting we will be trying to collaborate better, share information better, have better intelligence. We are going to get together and do a better job of sharing trafficking intelligence and work better together as investigators. Talking across borders is critical. Any time you share data it's always hard, but if you sit down and share information in conversation, that is valuable information.
Julius Kamwendwit Cheptei: Kenya is divided into eight conservation areas. One of those is the area I am responsible for, in the southern part of the country, 31,000 square kilometers, the equivalent of Israel. I have about 600 foot soldiers charged with the responsibility to ensure the survival of elephants, rhinos, and all other species. A big challenge is conflict between wildlife and community, but our primary responsibility is to ensure that wildlife survives.
Mike Cenci: We have 130 very dedicated Fish and Wildlife police officers and a small cadre of detectives that focus on trafficking and crimes related to natural resources. Some of you may be wondering what does this state agency have to do with the trafficking of species, particularly at the international level. Well, as a state, we've experienced our own natural resources being trafficked on a global scale. We're often the source…there's a lot of diversity in the Pacific Northwest…and our resources that are in relative abundance are highly valued worldwide, so we understand what some of these other nations are facing. If we are going to be concerned about our challenges, we have to show a lot of concern for their challenges. We know that wildlife trafficking is global and it requires a global response, and that requires that it be coordinated worldwide.
Chrstopher Fominyam Njoh Tangi: Responsible for the latest national park created in Cameroon (2015). We have a problem of bush meat, and our greatest problem is cross-border poaching from Nigeria. We also have a problem with the small trophy that comes out of our park, the buffalo horn, which is used as a drinking cup in our tradition. One of our greatest ways of handling wildlife crime is working with our local people. We have a lot of wildlife, but we need to do research to know what we have in the park. The park is enclaved, with no roads, so we have to work with the local people.
The wildlife criminals from Nigeria use the local people as their accomplices to get to what they want. We educate the local people to not be accomplices. In our culture, local people may take a little bush meat for their cultural use, but they may not sell it. But they always abuse this, so we have to discipline them. We have to work with them, get their support to track and find Nigerian trans-boundary poachers.
We don't have the technology, manpower, money, but we work with the local population. But what we hear from them is, “What is the alternative, if we don't work with these people who are paying us to show them where to get these animals, what are we going to do?” The challenge is to find partners who can come into these communities and help with alternative livelihoods, so they can have a better life and turn away from these poachers.
We must look at habitat to improve it. If the animals have a place to hide, they will outsmart the poachers by using the camouflage of the forest. Where we have deforested, the animals are exposed and can be shot from a long distance away. The restored forest is not friendly to poachers; more friendly to animals that can hide there. That's the planned aspect of our work…give animals places to hide and better security.
Tim Santel: We kicked off Operation Crash in 2011 with a team of special agents. I can say five years later, I am very proud of the results that our team put together. [Operation Crash is the centerpiece of Bryan Christy's rhino story in the October 2016 issue of National Geographic.] It is an extraordinary case that shows at multiple level the challenges for law enforcement and the impact of the U.S. Government.
John Webb, Member of the Federal Advisory Council on Wildlife Trafficking, and U.S. Department of Justice prosecutor (retired): We need well trained, well prepared investigators, and to be effective across borders requires those same investigators to cooperate among themselves. Two other important players in effective interdiction and enforcement: prosecutors and judges. How do we get that group of dedicated prosecutors that will take our effective investigations and turn them into successful prosecutions? How do we ensure that we have judges that take our cases seriously and are not corrupt? We have a trilogy of players, all of who must be on the same page for us to have effective wildlife crime fighting.
EAST SIDE SOL 2016 from Youth Speak Media Solutions on Vimeo.
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The man who might be president insists that climate change is an elaborate, "very expensive hoax," even possibly a "Chinese" one meant to undermine the American economy. It's "bullshit" and "pseudoscience" (on which, it seems, he's an expert). He's said this sort of thing numerous times, always mockingly, always dismissively. Only recently in his Phoenix speech on immigration, on his love of Mexicans, and on what suckers they'll be when it comes to paying for his future wall, he put it this way: "Only the out-of-touch media elites think the biggest problems facing America... it's not nuclear, and it's not ISIS, it's not Russia, it's not China, it's global warming." Those fools! They know nothing. They don't even know that there's a crucial footnote, a lone exception, to The Donald's climate change position: golf.
Though the heating of the planet via fossil fuels couldn't be more of a fantasy, while saving the coal industry, building pipelines, and reversing anything Barack Obama did in the White House to promote alternative energy systems will be the order of the day, it turns out that climate change does threaten one thing. And it's something crucial to human life as we know it: playing 18 holes on a coastal golf course. For that, protection is obviously in order. This is undoubtedly why the man with no fears about drowning coastal communities has, through his company Trump International Golf Links & Hotel Ireland, applied for permission to build "a coastal protection works to prevent erosion at his seaside golf resort in County Clare," based on... yep... the danger of rising sea levels. We're talking about "200,000 tons of rock distributed along two miles of beach." And if permission is finally granted, the result will surely be a "great wall," a "beautiful wall" that will not let a drop of sea water emigrate onto Irish soil.
One small hint for Mr. Trump, should he become president. From the Oval Office, he might consider granting similar wall-building exemptions to key parts of coastal Florida already experiencing a serious rise in what's called "sunny-day flooding." Such walls would protect crucial coastal properties like Mar-a-Lago, his top-of-the-line private club in Palm Beach, which could otherwise find itself "under at least a foot of water for 210 days a year because of tidal flooding" within three decades. It's that or develop a sport called aquatic golf.
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In a year of record-setting heat on a blistered globe, with fast-warming oceans, fast-melting ice caps, and fast-rising sea levels, ratification of the December 2015 Paris climate summit agreement -- already endorsed by most nations -- should be a complete no-brainer. That it isn't tells you a great deal about our world. Global geopolitics and the possible rightward lurch of many countries (including a potential deal-breaking election in the United States that could put a climate denier in the White House) spell bad news for the fate of the Earth. It's worth exploring how this might come to be.
The delegates to that 2015 climate summit were in general accord about the science of climate change and the need to cap global warming at 1.5 to 2.0 degrees Celsius (or 2.6 to 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit) before a planetary catastrophe ensues. They disagreed, however, about much else. Some key countries were in outright conflict with other states (Russia with Ukraine, for example) or deeply hostile to each other (as with India and Pakistan or the U.S. and Iran). In recognition of such tensions and schisms, the assembled countries crafted a final document that replaced legally binding commitments with the obligation of each signatory state to adopt its own unique plan, or “nationally determined contribution” (NDC), for curbing climate-altering greenhouse gas emissions.
As a result, the fate of the planet rests on the questionable willingness of each of those countries to abide by that obligation, however sour or bellicose its relations with other signatories may be. As it happens, that part of the agreement has already been buffeted by geopolitical headwinds and is likely to face increasing turbulence in the years to come.
That geopolitics will play a decisive role in determining the success or failure of the Paris Agreement has become self-evident in the short time since its promulgation. While some progress has been made toward its formal adoption -- the agreement will enter into force only after no fewer than 55 countries, accounting for at least 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions, have ratified it -- it has also encountered unexpected political hurdles, signaling trouble to come.
On the bright side, in a stunning diplomatic coup, President Obama persuaded Chinese President Xi Jinping to sign the accord with him during a recent meeting of the G-20 group of leading economies in Hangzhou. Together, the two countries are responsible for a striking 40% of global emissions. “Despite our differences on other issues,” Obama noted during the signing ceremony, “we hope our willingness to work together on this issue will inspire further ambition and further action around the world.”
Brazil, the planet's seventh largest emitter, just signed on as well, and a number of states, including Japan and New Zealand, have announced their intention to ratify the agreement soon. Many others are expected to do so before the next major U.N. climate summit in Marrakesh, Morocco, this November.
On the dark side, however, Great Britain's astonishing Brexit vote has complicated the task of ensuring the European Union's approval of the agreement, as European solidarity on the climate issue -- a major factor in the success of the Paris negotiations -- can no longer be assured. “There is a risk that this could kick EU ratification of the Paris Agreement into the long grass,” suggests Jonathan Grant, director of sustainability at PricewaterhouseCoopers.
The Brexit campaign itself was spearheaded by politicians who were also major critics of climate science and strong opponents of efforts to promote a transition from carbon-based fuels to green sources of energy. For example, the chair of the Vote Leave campaign, former Chancellor of the Exchequer Nigel Lawson, is also chairman of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, a think-tank devoted to sabotaging government efforts to speed the transition to green energy. Many other top Leave campaigners, including former Conservative ministers John Redwood and Owen Paterson, were also vigorous climate deniers.
In explaining the strong link between these two camps, analysts at the Economist noted that both oppose British submission to international laws and norms: “Brexiteers dislike EU regulations and know that any effective action to tackle climate change will require some kind of global cooperation: carbon taxes or binding targets on emissions. The latter would be the EU writ large and Britain would have even less say in any global agreement, involving some 200 nations, than in an EU regime involving 28.”
Keep in mind as well that Angela Merkel and François Hollande, the leaders of the other two anchors of the European Union, Germany and France, are both embattled by right-wing anti-immigrant parties likely to be similarly unfriendly to such an agreement. And in what could be the deal-breaker of history, this same strain of thought, combining unbridled nationalism, climate denialism, fierce hostility to immigration, and unwavering support for domestic fossil fuel production, also animates Donald Trump's campaign for the American presidency.
In his first major speech on energy, delivered in May, Trump -- who has called global warming a Chinese hoax -- pledged to “cancel the Paris climate agreement” and scrap the various measures announced by President Obama to ensure U.S. compliance with its provisions. Echoing the views of his Brexit counterparts, he complained that “this agreement gives foreign bureaucrats control over how much energy we use on our land, in our country. No way.” He also vowed to revive construction of the Keystone XL pipeline (which would bring carbon-heavy Canadian tar sands oil to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast), to reverse any climate-friendly Obama administration acts, and to promote the coal industry. “Regulations that shut down hundreds of coal-fired power plants and block the construction of new ones -- how stupid is that?” he said, mockingly.
In Europe, ultra-nationalist parties on the right are riding a wave of Islamaphobia, anti-immigrant sentiment, and disgust with the European Union. In France, for instance, former president Nicolas Sarkozy announced his intention to run for that post again, promising even more stringent controls on migrants and Muslims and a greater focus on French “identity.” Even further to the right, the rabidly anti-Muslim Marine Le Pen is also in the race at the head of her National Front Party. Like-minded candidates have already made gains in national elections in Austria and most recently in a state election in Germany that stunned Merkel's ruling party. In each case, they surged by disavowing relatively timid efforts by the European Union to resettle refugees from Syria and other war-torn countries. Although climate change is not a defining issue in these contests as it is in the U.S. and Britain, the growing opposition to anything associated with the EU and its regulatory system poses an obvious threat to future continent-wide efforts to cap greenhouse gas emissions.
Elsewhere in the world, similar strands of thinking are spreading, raising serious questions about the ability of governments to ratify the Paris Agreement or, more importantly, to implement its provisions. Take India, for example.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has indeed voiced support for the Paris accord and promised a vast expansion of solar power. He has also made no secret of his determination to promote economic growth at any cost, including greatly increased reliance on coal-powered electricity. That spells trouble. According to the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy, India is likely to double its coal consumption over the next 25 years, making it the world's second largest coal consumer after China. Combined with an increase in oil and natural gas consumption, such a surge in coal use could result in a tripling of India's carbon dioxide emissions at a time when most countries (including the U.S. and China) are expected to experience a peak or decline in theirs.
Prime Minister Modi is well aware that his devotion to coal has generated resentment among environmentalists in India and elsewhere who seek to slow the growth of carbon emissions. He nonetheless insists that, as a major developing nation, India should enjoy a special right to achieve economic growth in any way it can, even if this means endangering the environment. “The desire to improve one's lot has been the primary driving force behind human progress,” his government affirmed in its emissions-reduction pledge to the Paris climate summit. “Nations that are now striving to fulfill this ‘right to grow' of their teeming millions cannot be made to feel guilty [about] their development agenda as they attempt to fulfill this legitimate aspiration.”
Russia is similarly likely to put domestic economic needs (and the desire to remain a great power, militarily and otherwise) ahead of its global climate obligations. Although President Vladimir Putin attended the Paris summit and assured the gathered nations of Russian compliance with its outcome, he has also made it crystal clear that his country has no intention of giving up its reliance on oil and natural gas exports for a large share of its national income. According to the Energy Information Administration, Russia's government relies on such exports for a staggering 50% of its operating revenue, a share it dare not jeopardize at a time when its economy -- already buffeted by European Union and U.S. sanctions -- is in deep recession. To ensure the continued flow of hydrocarbon income, in fact, Moscow has announced multibillion dollar plans to develop new oil and gas fields in Siberia and the Arctic, even if such efforts fly in the face of commitments to reduce future carbon emissions.
From Reform and Renewal to Rivalry
Such nationalistic exceptionalism could become something of the norm if Donald Trump wins in November, or other nations join those already eager to put the needs of a fossil fuel-based domestic growth agenda ahead of global climate commitments. With that in mind, consider the assessment of future energy trends that the Norwegian energy giant Statoil recently produced. In it is a chilling scenario focused on just this sort of dystopian future.
The second-biggest producer of natural gas in Europe after Russia's Gazprom, Statoil annually issues Energy Perspectives, a report that explores possible future energy trends. Previous editions included scenarios labeled “reform” (predicated on coordinated but gradual international efforts to shift from carbon fuels to green energy technology) and “renewal” (positing a more rapid transition). The 2016 edition, however, added a grim new twist: “rivalry.” It depicts a realistically downbeat future in which international strife and geopolitical competition discourage significant cooperation in the climate field.
According to the document, the new section is “driven” by real-world developments -- by, that is, “a series of political crises, growing protectionism, and a general fragmentation of the state system, resulting in a multipolar world developing in different directions. In this scenario, there is growing disagreement about the rules of the game and a decreasing ability to manage crises in the political, economic, and environmental arenas.”
In such a future, Statoil suggests, the major powers would prove to be far more concerned with satisfying their own economic and energy requirements than pursuing collaborative efforts aimed at slowing the pace of climate change. For many of them, this would mean maximizing the cheapest and most accessible fuel options available -- often domestic supplies of fossil fuels. Under such circumstances, the report suggests, the use of coal would rise, not fall, and its share of global energy consumption would actually increase from 29% to 32%.
In such a world, forget about those “nationally determined contributions” agreed to in Paris and think instead about a planet whose environment will grow ever less friendly to life as we know it. In its rivalry scenario, writes Statoil, “the climate issue has low priority on the regulatory agenda. While local pollution issues are attended to, large-scale international climate agreements are not the chosen way forward. As a consequence, the current NDCs are only partly implemented. Climate finance ambitions are not met, and carbon pricing to stimulate cost-efficient reductions in countries and across national borders are limited.”
Coming from a major fossil fuel company, this vision of how events might play out on an increasingly tumultuous planet makes for peculiar reading: more akin to Eaarth -- Bill McKibben's dystopian portrait of a climate-ravaged world -- than the usual industry-generated visions of future world health and prosperity. And while “rivalry” is only one of several scenarios Statoil's authors considered, they clearly found it unnervingly convincing. Hence, in a briefing on the report, the company's chief economist Eirik Wærness indicated that Great Britain's looming exit from the EU was exactly the sort of event that would fit the proposed model and might multiply in the future.
Climate Change in a World of Geopolitical Exceptionalism
Indeed, the future pace of climate change will be determined as much by geopolitical factors as technological developments in the energy sector. While it is evident that immense progress is being made in bringing down the price of wind and solar power in particular -- far more so than all but a few analysts anticipated until recently -- the political will to turn such developments into meaningful global change and so bring carbon emissions to heel before the planet is unalterably transformed may, as the Statoil authors suggest, be dematerializing before our eyes. If so, make no mistake about it: we will be condemning Earth's future inhabitants, our own children and grandchildren, to unmitigated disaster.
As President Obama's largely unheralded success in Hangzhou indicates, such a fate is not etched in stone. If he could persuade the fiercely nationalistic leader of a country worried about its economic future to join him in signing the climate agreement, more such successes are possible. His ability to achieve such outcomes is, however, diminishing by the week, and few other leaders of his stature and determination appear to be waiting in the wings.
To avoid an Eaarth (as both Bill McKibben and the Statoil authors imagine it) and preserve the welcoming planet in which humanity grew and thrived, climate activists will have to devote at least as much of their energy and attention to the international political arena as to the technology sector. At this point, electing green-minded leaders, stopping climate deniers (or ignorers) from capturing high office, and opposing fossil-fueled ultra-nationalism is the only realistic path to a habitable planet.
Michael T. Klare, a TomDispatch regular, is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and the author, most recently, of The Race for What's Left. A documentary movie version of his book Blood and Oil is available from the Media Education Foundation. Follow him on Twitter at @mklare1.
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Doñana wetlands in Andalusia is home to thousands of species but has lost most of its natural water due to industry and faces ‘danger' listing by Unesco
A Spanish wetland home to 2,000 species of wildlife including around 6 million migratory birds is on track to join a Unesco world heritage danger list, according to a new report.
Doñana is an Andalusian reserve of sand dunes, shallow streams and lagoons, stretching for 540 square kilometres (209 square miles) where flamingoes feed and wild horses and Iberian lynx still roam.
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